DOGE — Is It Dead, or Deadly?

Cutting spending intelligently is not easy. DOGE cuts RAISE disaster risks AS Trump 2.0 spending priorities balloon the deficit.

I thank A. Gary Shilling and Fred Rossi for permission to share this excerpt from the July 2025 issue of their monthly INSIGHT newsletter (https://www.agaryshilling.com/insight/):

One of the things Trump has been promoting is cutting government spending, and Elon Musk’s much ballyhooed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) ran roughshod over the federal bureaucracy in the first weeks of Trump’s Administration as it attempted to shutter entire agencies such as USAID, access various taxpayer data and lay off thousands of federal workers en masse. DOGE’s goal was initially to cut $2 trillion in spending from a federal budget of more than $7 trillion. That was quickly pared to a $1 trillion goal. DOGE’s latest estimate is that it has cut $175 billion in federal spending, but independent estimates put the actual figure closer to $30 billion, which represents a mere 0.4% of the total federal budget (Chart 2).

The reality is that it’s very difficult to cut government spending. As a goal, it’s pretty silly to waste time on. Back when I was working on George H.W. Bush’s first presidential campaign, we looked at what would happen if the government simply froze spending in real terms — on defense outlays, government welfare programs, etc. — and that was combined with the very strong tendency of government revenues to climb with the economy and with inflation. And it was amazing that, within a few years, deficits were eliminated. Something like that would work today, even with trillion-dollar-plus annual deficits, but probably won’t happen because it’s not politically feasible. For one, a big step towards a more fiscally responsible federal government would be to make cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs. That would amount to political suicide, though — and just the mere mention earlier this year of paring back those programs caused an uproar. Even the Republicans’ inclusion of Medicare and Medicaid cuts in their proposed budget has led to big pushbacks from proponents of those programs. So whether DOGE’s efforts are going to amount to anything significant remains to be seen.

In the space of six months, we have watched the hyperbole about DOGE’s $2 trillion savings morph into negligible actual savings while, coincidentally, the OBBBA passed with the feckless Freedom Caucus in the House capitulating. So, my taxes will go down. Thanks. My plan is to give away the savings to charities and to defeat feckless politicians in either party. It seems to me that my country is now being punished in healthcare, in life quality, and in personal safety. We have lost our compass, IMO. Meanwhile, my Congress has become a disgusting assemblage of cowards.

We now face about $5 trillion in added federal debt over the coming 10-year time frame. It may reach as high as $6 trillion if all the so-called temporary tax cuts are extended. The “limit the time” device was designed to shorten the time frame evaluated so that the official deficit estimate is lower, under $4 trillion. The law requires the CBO to use only actual legal periods in “scoring” legislation. That’s why the official 10-year debt addition estimate is below $4 trillion. Here’s a thought exercise: Does anyone really expect a politician to take away the “no tax on tips” provision once it has been in place for a few years?

We have seen some federal budget cutting, and we are witnessing the backlash already. And we witness the political debate again as it undermines personal safety in the face of tragedy. I will use one current example.

The Texas floods killed many people. Questions swirled in the wake of the disaster. Did the DOGE-inspired budget cuts cause the nation’s weather service to miss warnings because of insufficient staffing? Were there other related staff shortages? Some Texas officials think so. But no government agency will admit publicly that they have insufficient resources now. So knowing who to believe in government and what the truth might be is very difficult.

Here’s an excerpt from an Associated Press report on July 8:

In the 48 hours before the floods, the potential for heavy rains put precautions in motion as the state activated an emergency response plan and moved resources into the central Texas area. The National Weather Service issued a flash-flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday to mobile phones and weather radios, more than three hours before the first reports of flooding at low-water crossings in Kerr County at 4:35 a.m. The warning was updated at 4:03 a.m. to a flash-flood emergency.
(“Texas county deflects mounting questions over actions before deadly flood” | AP,
https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-kerr-county-warnings-31c4e493e9f1b6d0406df310e74d3f98/)

A review of the facts suggests that the attempt to warn broke down not at the level of weather forecasts and warnings but in getting those warnings out to people locally. Factcheck.org’s investigation found that the problem emerged in the “last mile,” in coordination with local officials.

In the hours leading up to the July 4 flood, “The forecasting was good. The warnings were good. It’s always about getting people to receive the message,” Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist based in Wisconsin, told NBC News. “It appears that is one of the biggest contributors — that last mile.”

Richard Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, said in a July 8 interview on CNN, “I am convinced that the staff cuts that we saw were a contributing factor to the inability of the emergency managers to respond. The staffing was just fine, and the White House has concurred with this, to get the forecast out and to get the watches and warnings issued, but when you send a message there’s no guarantee it’s being received. So, someone needs to follow up, and that’s the warning coordination meteorologist — a position that was VACANT.”

Fahy also told us the San Angelo office had not permanently FILLED its meteorologist-in-charge position and had a VACANCY for a hydrologist, who analyzes stream flow and plays an important role in flood response.
(“Staffing Cuts at NWS and the Tragic Flooding in Texas” | Factcheck.org,
https://www.factcheck.org/2025/07/staffing-cuts-at-nws-and-the-tragic-flooding-in-texas/)

This has been an investigative exercise with lessons for all levels of emergency warning and response and for DOGE. We expect to see it repeated as other natural disasters unfold.

Let’s get to the bigger issue. I searched (using CoPilot) for a compilation of the budget cutbacks applicable to weather-related risks. Here’s an AI-curated list with sources.

Recent budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) under the Trump administration have raised serious concerns among scientists, emergency managers, and public health experts. Here's a breakdown of the key impacts:

NOAA: Severe Budget and Staff Reductions

Budget Cuts: NOAA's budget has been slashed by nearly 40%, from $5.8 billion to $3.5 billion. The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which underpins much of NOAA’s forecasting and climate science, is facing complete defunding.

Staffing Losses: NOAA has lost about 10% of its workforce, including 600 staff from the National Weather Service (NWS). Many regional weather offices are now understaffed or unstaffed, reducing the frequency of critical weather balloon launches that inform forecast models.

Forecasting Capabilities at Risk: Experts warn that these cuts could set U.S. weather forecasting back a generation, jeopardizing improvements in hurricane and tornado prediction. Programs like the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, which has saved billions in damages, are now in jeopardy.

FEMA: Workforce Cuts and Operational Strain

Workforce Reduction: FEMA has lost about 2,000 permanent employees, roughly one-third of its workforce. Cuts have affected both regional and headquarters staff, including emergency responders and logistics personnel.

Operational Challenges: The agency is struggling to respond to multiple disasters simultaneously, with delays in deploying resources like search and rescue teams, hospital assessment units, and emergency supplies. FEMA’s ability to coordinate with states and localitieshas been weakened due to the loss of institutional knowledge and embedded staff.

Future Uncertainty: The administration has repeatedly proposed eliminating FEMA entirely, though no concrete plan has been presented. FEMA’s disaster resilience projects and community preparedness grants have been halted or defunded, increasing long-term vulnerability.

Here are the primary research sources for the details about the 2025 budget cut impacts on NOAA and FEMA:

Palm Beach Post – Detailed how NOAA’s budget was nearly halved, with major impacts on hurricane forecasting, staffing, and weather balloon launches.

USA Today – Reported on the elimination of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, the broader implications for weather forecasting, and the potential rollback of decades of progress.

Boston University School of Public Health – Covered the dual impact on NOAA and FEMA, including staff reductions, loss of institutional knowledge, and the halting of resilience-building projects.

Government Executive – Featured testimony from former FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, highlighting how FEMA’s one-third workforce reduction is slowing disaster response and coordination with NOAA.

Since the above was drafted, the Trump administration has backed off from its position that FEMA should be abolished, but changes are nonetheless in store that will transition more responsibility to the states. Uncertainty remains about how disaster response will work and whether disaster assistance will be politicized.

Bottom line? We are in serious trouble. These budget cuts come ahead of an above-normal 2025 hurricane season, with very high water temperatures in the Gulf and the Atlantic. Note that the temperature in the Gulf contributed to the Texas disaster. The combined weakening of NOAA and FEMA suggests slower disaster response, less accurate forecasts, and greater economic and human losses.

One final thought: Where people get information and how they curate it is a growing issue. I offer readers sources and citations for as much as I can. The perils of relying on faulty informants is growing, IMO. As Churchill supposedly said, “A lie is halfway round the world before the truth has got its boots on.” (As is often the case, this aphorism actually goes back a long way. The renowned English Baptist preacher Charles. H. Spurgeon voiced it in a sermon in 1859, and the sentiment about the relative velocity of lies can be traced back to the Roman poet Virgil.)

Doug Kass (Seabreeze Partners) eloquently addressed a related issue and gave me permission to quote him. Thank you, Dougie. Here’s an excerpt from Doug’s morning missive on July 8, when he wrote about an article that reflected a misunderstanding of Grok and how it works:

It indirectly shows how AI is terribly misunderstood by the masses, and it indirectly gives a lot of perspective about the stock market. My point is NOT about the politics discussed in the article. I stay out of it, as it is unproductive. The point of my missive is what the author (conservative) does not understand. Grok was not re-programmed overnight to be “woke” because President Trump and Elon Musk are at odds again, as the author implies in the article. The issue, which has been well discussed, and is not even really a point anymore, is that generative AI can only take what is out there and spit it back out in a different format. It does not think, it only regurgitates. Thusly, if most of the news tells you the tragedy in Texas was due to a certain reason, the AI bots will tell you the same thing. Not complicated. They are the world’s most expensive mirrors. On the other hand, you could drop a billion apples in front of the world’s most powerful cameras attached to the world’s most powerful AI, and it could never come up with the theory of gravity if it already did not exist. Not new info, I have beat that horse to death, not the point of my little rant. If a journalist has no idea what is going on and how AI really works and what it does, what do you think the average person knows about AI?

Doug concludes (and I concur):

Same for the average politician or government official, frankly. They all kind of know zero. As in squat. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Jack. Bubkes. They just know what they are told, which is AI is this brand-new super genius technology that is about to find a cure for cancer and will put everyone out of work (but somehow grow GDP 10% per year at the same time).

Dear readers, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is now in the hands of Russell Vought, the architect of Project 2025.

We are watching that plan unfold.

For Further Reading

“‘Rain bomb’ concerns: In Texas, Florida and across the globe, warmer climate makes flooding ‘more unprecedented’” | Orlando Sentinel,
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/07/08/in-texas-florida-and-across-the-globe-warmer-climate-makes-flooding-more-unprecedented/

“The Texas Flash Flood Is a Preview of the Chaos to Come” | ProPublica,
https://www.propublica.org/article/texas-flash-flood-camp-mystic-climate-change-trump-noaa-fema

“Trump's Texas visit highlights an us-vs-them approach to disasters” | Reuters,
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/trumps-texas-visit-highlights-an-us-vs-them-approach-disasters-2025-07-11/

“Trump administration moves away from abolishing FEMA” | Washington Post,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/11/trump-fema-texas-floods/

“Supreme Court Clears Way for Mass Firings at Federal Agencies” | New York Times,
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/us/politics/supreme-court-federal-workers-layoffs.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

“FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show” | AP,
https://apnews.com/article/texas-flood-camp-mystic-map-records-investigation-e12bee8d5f88301363861ca12c19b929

“Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 1” | Kotok Report,
https://kotokreport.com/climate-change-markets-economics-part-1/

“Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 2” | Kotok Report,
https://kotokreport.com/climate-change-markets-economics-part-2/

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